The sum total of the pursuit of net zero CO2 emissions by the United Kingdom (UK) has been to offshore energy-intensive industrial production at the cost of hundreds of thousands of jobs, billions of tax revenues, higher imports, and lower exports.

This is the central finding of a recently released report titled Premeditated Industrial Destruction? written by Catherine McBride, an economist specialising in trade for the Great British Business Council, a UK-based business policy group.

That report shows that UK emissions have been reduced, on paper at least, largely by shutting down its domestic industry and importing the same goods it used to make from abroad. At the same time, energy costs have risen to among the highest in the developed world, driving production overseas. The result has been large-scale job losses in well-paying sectors, rising import dependence, and a widening trade deficit, while global emissions continue to increase.

Over the past two decades, successive UK governments have committed to reaching net zero by 2050, with the stated aim of ending the country’s domestic contribution to climate change while supporting jobs and reducing reliance on imported energy.

As these policies have been implemented, the opposite has occurred. The UK has lost hundreds of thousands of high-productivity industrial jobs. Energy-intensive sectors, including steel, chemicals, plastics, refining, and aluminium, have contracted sharply despite underpinning many of the country’s most valuable export industries. At the same time, the UK has become more reliant on imported energy and more exposed to global supply shocks, from price spikes to disruptions at key chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz.

Industrial electricity costs capture the shift clearly. Since late 2019, the cost of power for businesses has risen sharply, with non-domestic electricity prices up by around 68%, and even higher for smaller firms. A growing share of that cost is driven by policy and system charges rather than the underlying price of electricity itself. Even earlier comparisons pointed to the same structural problem. British industrial electricity costs have long been significantly higher than those of European peers. By 2021, electricity costs for energy-intensive sectors such as steel were around £46.60/MWh, compared with £28.74/MWh in France and £25.00/MWh in Germany once policy and network charges were included. The result is a widening structural disadvantage that steadily erodes the competitiveness of British industry.

The effect is visible in industrial output. Production in energy-intensive industries is now at its lowest level in 35 years.

The UK has moved from 18 oil refineries in the 1970s to just four today. The same pattern is visible in steel. Production capacity has dropped from around 15 million tonnes to roughly six million over the past decade, while actual output has fallen further to about four million tonnes in 2024. Chemical output has declined sharply, with production down by around 40% since 2021.

Consumption, however, has not fallen. The UK continues to use the same goods, but now imports them instead. The report estimates that imported goods account for around 180 million tonnes of CO2 emissions, meaning a large share of emissions linked to UK consumption now occurs abroad. These goods are often produced in higher-emission economies such as China, where coal remains the dominant energy source, and transported across oceans via global shipping powered largely by bunker fuel.

The reason that the UK can claim to reduce its emissions while importing a wide variety of finished products is because carbon accounting is territorial, meaning only emissions produced within the UK are counted. By shutting down domestic industry, the UK reduces its recorded emissions, while importing the same goods shifts those emissions abroad. The number falls on paper, even though production continues elsewhere.

Even if the UK were to take this drive to net zero to its extreme, it would make no meaningful difference. Since 1990, the UK has reduced its emissions by roughly 290 million tonnes of CO2, while global emissions have increased by around 1.07 trillion tonnes over the same period.

Thus, at the cost of hundreds of thousands of jobs, declining living standards, and a weakened industrial base, the UK has reduced global emissions by just 0.03%.